Steven Carter

Forecasting AEB funding taking into account withdrawals etc.



Does anybody do anything clever to take into account future withdrawals and non-achievement when forecasting what their AEB funding will be at the end of the year? We reduce the achievement element based on past achievement rates but have tried various ways to predict reduction of programme funding due to withdrawals.

If anybody would be happy to share what they do or any hints and tips I would be grateful.



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Hi Steven

Yeah, I've done something like this. Key thing is not to just use a retention rate because payments are generated each month so it depends *when* people withdraw.

So, you can take the occupancy report, sum received on-prog funding for a qual and then look at what the max on-prog funding for that qual would've been had all the learners completed. Is a bit shaky because received funding will have Area Cost and DU in (so remember to include it in your max values too, rather than just using the flat rate), and the latter is subject to a bit of variance year on year, but it will give you a reasonable percentage to do some modelling on?

Steven Carter

Thanks Steve that's helpful. Do you recalculate the percentage each month taking into account withdrawals that will have been processed? If I apply the same percentage in March that I did in November the occupancy report will already include some funding reduction so applying the same percentage might over estimate? Or am I making this too complicated...


Yeah, I've only done it looking at last year's to forecast what this year should be, rather than anything more complex...

Steven Carter

Thanks for responding Steve.